TRUE GRIT
Some of you may already be familiar with the work of psychologist and popular TED talker Angela Duckworth on the concept of grit, which she refers to as “passion and perseverance for very long-term goals;” the dictionary, meanwhile, defines grit more broadly as an ability to display courage and resolve in the face of challenge.
From a pragmatic, “big picture” perspective, this could easily be making reference to the entire process of investing; certainly, this long-term practice we are pursuing together requires a healthy degree of grit from which to draw the courage, conviction, and discipline to prudently grow our clients’ wealth in pursuit of their – of your – most important long-term goals.
Why the long face? Another year in the can, all wrapped up nice and festive with a pretty little bow, Santa Claus rally and all! Any investor with the nerve to complain that they did not get everything on their Christmas list should at least have been able to find solace in the market’s recent move to all-time highs, so let’s just keep the tidings of comfort and joy rolling all the way through 2024, right?!
You’re no doubt hearing a lot about how remarkably “resilient” the U.S. economy has been looking lately. Despite the Fed’s move to hike interest rates sharply higher over the past 18 months, economic growth in the U.S. has managed to remain in positive territory in recent quarters, steadily exceeding economists’ expectations in the process.
The Fed is on pause. No, wait! Cancel that: it may just have been a “skip” masquerading as a “pause.” Okay, so more interest rate hikes to come then. One? Two? Certainly not more than two!? And those 2023 rate cuts that markets have been pricing in since early March? Oh, okay; those are gone too now.
TO BUY, OR SAY “GOODBYE!” …THAT IS THE QUESTION
Verily, ‘tis so! As the Ides of May grow nigh, investors are in a state of consternation to rival that of the Prince of Denmark himself as they ponder whether it be nobler – or financially more astute – to go “all-in” (Shakespeare, too, was apparently a big Texas Hold’em player) or move to the sidelines and check back in on the markets some time in the late Fall. If, perchance, either of those two extremes looks particularly appealing to you right now, I beg you heed my warning and reframe the question lest ye suffer the financial equivalent of a tragic ending.
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?
Forgive me; no sooner had the words hit the page than it occurred to me that “entertained” is almost certainly not the word you would have chosen. Stunned perhaps? Or maybe nauseous would have been a better choice. A twenty-five percent bear market decline in stocks disrupted by sporadic and occasionally quite violent counter-trend rallies; a huge spike in the number of one to two percent swings up or down in the market from one day to the next and some of the largest intra-day reversals ever seen.
BACK WHERE WE STARTED, HERE WE GO ‘ROUND AGAIN
Another year under our belts, another one already storming out of the gate. Before 2022 completely gets away from us, though, conventional wisdom dictates that, as investors, it is our duty to stop and scrutinize the books we only just barely closed this past December 31st. The purpose?
KEEP CALM AND RALLY ON!
You’d be right to suspect that – as usual – a very different working title originally was queued up to open this quarter’s piece. Truth is, my first impulse was to go with a rousing chorus of Life of Brian’s “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life,” as I could imagine no more fitting salute to 2020’s swirl around the toil…
HISTORY IN THE MAKING
It’s not very often you can use a headline like that comfortably, without feeling as though you need to second-guess yourself; quite frankly, in light of everything we’ve had to go through to get to this point, that’s just fine with us! We feel quite confident, however, applying this particular lens to our current global circumstances.
ISN’T THIS WHERE WE CAME IN? The title with which I was originally tempted to open this quarter’s piece was “What a Long, Strange Trip It’s Been!”, one that (those of you keeping score will know) we have actually used before – specifically, in our 2016 year-end wrapup. Seriously: what better way to encapsulate THAT rollercoaster ride of a year?! We had to be witnessing the peak in uncertainty, volatility, and insanity, right?? Or so we thought!
